UPDATE/CORRECTION : Due to a screw-up in my source material I mistakenly listed Dave Krikorian as running in Oklahoma, not Ohio; it has been corrected. I've just done a state-by-state run of most of the more recent polls, and I have excerpted general results below. I have learned several things by doing this. 1) Adding actual third-party names (Barr, Nader, etc.) as Zogby does, really changes the response pattern. Not only did it break out that Other category, in many cases it caused a dramatic shift in the Obama-McCain numbers at serious odds with other polls. Usually this effect hurt McCain more--but not always. The question then becomes, which type of polling is more accurate? Polls that focus on the big two, or polls that add in all the other names and potentially sway voters with that choice? I have no idea. 2) Forget the confident projections of any particular outcome: several battleground states are swinging back and forth like crazy; where they swing in November, n...

How often do Libertarian candidates actually get real , substantive news coverage as anything but curiosities? Well, apparently it happens in Indiana's 9th Congressional District: After I recently published a post about Eric getting similar coverage in the local newspapers , I wrote the Daniel Suddeath (the author), complimenting him on his even-handed treatment of all three candidates. His response was informative: Our editors insist we provide equal coverage, which is what we should do. Dr. Schansberg is a great guy and has some good things to say. Maybe, just maybe, there is change in the wind.

A little context for those visiting from out of state: Delaware politics, especially gubernatorial succession, has become a machine-driven, "wait your turn" process. Our current outgoing guv--widely considered the worst governor in modern Delaware history--is Ruth Ann "Aunt Bee" Minner, whose last (we all hope) official act was to veto eminent domain legislation that would have protected First State property owners from the rather rapacious city of Wilmington. But here's the rub. Given the current imbalance in voter registration and the collapse of the Delaware GOP mirroring that of the national party, the Democratic nominee will almost assuredly waltz into the Governor's Mansion in November. The only problem? State Treasurer Jack Markell doesn't want to wait his turn. This was supposed to be Lieutenant Governor John Carney's year, even though he represents the kind of robotic, machine-politician who cold give Hillary Clinton lessons in cold-heart...

On The Issues claims to have the stand of Every Political Leader on Every Issue . It's the place where you go when you need to know, very quickly, what Barack Obama, or John McCain, or Joe Biden said about this or that topic. Until recently, however, it was not a place inhabited by Libertarians who weren't running for President; we seem to be the Baltic and Mediterranean on the far side of the board from the Demopublican Boardwalk and Park Place. So imagine my delight and surprise to discover that two Libertarian Senatorial candidates-- Allen Buckley of Georgia and Scott Jameson of Texas--now have their own pages at On The Issues. Buckley here ; Jameson here . [Snark: they have Buckley and Jameson, but haven't listed Bob Barr yet . Heh, heh.] This is a major coup for Buckley and Jameson, as it represents a small but important break in the usual media embargo against Libertarian candidates in State races (and no other third party Senatorial candidates there have a par...

At Z-Net (via Third Party Watch ), Dr. Kim Scipes, a sociologist at Perdue University North Central and Green Party member, discusses the same transformation for that party as I have been discussing here: how to turn an issue-oriented movement into a real political party. Intriguuing--ideological differences aside--Scipes makes many of the same points that I've been making about the Libertarian Party, especially that such a party has to be built by running credible candidates for major Federal offices at the State level : Yet I'd suggest there is a way forward. First of all, a snowball has a better chance in hell than a Green president has in being chosen this year. And even if a miracle happened—and it truly would take a miracle—we couldn't back her/him up in Congress to get anything done. And the American people know this—as do, I suggest, most Green Party members. However, I think where there is the best chance to win—and there are many factors—would be in Congress...

The transformation of Third Party Watch into an overt arm of the Viguerie/Barr strategy to take ownership of the Libertarian Party continues to unfold. Two days ago, blog owner Stephen Gordon sold the enterprise to Viguerie. Something along this line had been in the wind for awhile, as Gordon had recently joined Bob Barr's exploratory committee and had remarked publicly on more than one occasion that he was tired of all the abuse he took from more radical commenters. Yesterday, the Libertarian Party Media Director revoked the convention press credentials of several TPW contributors , apparently at the request of the new management. For the individual contributors this was no big thing--most of them secured alternate credentials very quickly--but the next item will make it clear that a pattern is developing. Today, disinter reveals that the new de facto managing editor of Third Party Watch is none other than Shane Corey, the recently ousted LP Executive Director who went to work ...

Let's start with the obvious: no matter how much I would prefer otherwise, one of the following three individuals (Clinton, McCain, or Obama) is going to be the next President of the United States. To me this means that no matter whatever else happens, none of them are going to do anything serious about dismantling America's worldwide military empire or reducing the grip that the military-industrial complex has on our government and our economy . If you don't believe me, go here , here , and here . That said, what the Ron Paul phenomenon proved earlier this year is that there are a hell of a lot of discontented voters out there willing to challenge the two-party system . The Libertarian Party. The Constitution Party. The Green Party. The "I'm Ralph Nader and I'm back again" Party. Of these, only the Libertarians have the ballot access to mount a truly nationwide campaign--which in large measure explains the opportunistic conversions of Bob Barr and M...

Let's play with the two different scenarios for the General Election (McCain v. Clinton and McCain v. Obama) from a slightly different perspective: the potential impact of third-party candidates. Scenario One: McCain v Obama. Start with the current Survey USA electoral college predictions (h/t to Delawareliberal for pointing them out) which give Obama a 280-252 electoral victory. Frankly, if I were an Obama supporter I would find these results less than comforting for the following reasons. 1) New Jersey is awarded to Obama despite the survey showing a dead heat (43-43); I suspect that Survey USA listed NJ as Democratic because they ultimately cannot see the state going for a Republican, and neither can I. BUT--here's the rub-- any Democrat should have a much larger lead there right now than Obama shows over McCain. The McCain/Clinton poll actually shows McCain winning New Jersey by five points (47-42). This is seriously disquieting news for the Democrats because Ne...