Skip to main content

Finally, some decent polling analysis of the NC Governor's race

CarolinaDem (from whom some other Dems who have attached state names to themselves could learn a bit about logical thinking) has posted one of the best analyses to date on the North Carolina governor's race that actually quantifies the impact that Libertarian Mike Munger is having on the contest:

In an election for North Carolina Governor today, 08/12/08, 12 weeks to the vote, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Republican Mayor of Charlotte Pat McCrory finish effectively even, neither gaining ground, with Libertarian Mike Munger siphoning votes from both, according to this latest SurveyUSA election tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV in Raleigh. Today, it's Perdue 47%, McCrory 44%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error. When Duke Professor Munger's 5% is added in, and combined with another 5% who are undecided, Perdue's slight advantage is not significant, at this hour. The contest is fluid. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, Perdue is flat, McCrory is down 2, Munger is up 2. Munger gets 7% of the male vote, taking votes from the Republican McCrory, and 7% of those 18 to 34, taking votes from the Democrat Perdue. McCrory leads by 18 points in Charlotte and the western portion of the state, where Munger gets 5% and Perdue is losing ground. Perdue leads by 18 points in the Raleigh and Greensboro areas, where Munger gets 5% and McCrory is losing ground. Perdue and McCrory are tied in southern and coastal North Carolina. Incumbent governor Mike Easley, first elected in 2000, is term limited. The seat is open. The current is swift.


Key points here:

1) Munger, like Libertarian Senate candidate Chris Cole, is not running as some sort of Nader-like barnacle fastened on the GOP hull. He's pulling in thoughtful, disenchanted voters from both parties. This is essential to the future of the Libertarian Party.

2) Now established at a firm 5%, Munger's numbers are large enough to allow firm regional and demographic analysis. He's scoring well among white males, among 17-34 year-olds, and is running equally well in the Charlotte/western NC and Raleigh/Greensboro regions. He's a legitimate state-wide candidate.

3) Munger's numbers will certainly go up after the October 15 debate, assuming that Bev Perdue has the guts to show up. I wouldn't. Dr Munger has a razor-sharp wit and no need to take prisoners (oops, sorry jason, I think I just veered off into hate speech there)....

North Carolina continues to be the Libertarian Party's most interesting and successful laboratory for experiments with electoral success.

Pity that neither Bob Barr nor national headquarters actually gives a shit.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

A Libertarian Martin Luther King Jr. Day post

In which we travel into interesting waters . . . (for a fairly long trip, so be prepared) Dr. King's 1968 book, Where do we go from here:  chaos or community? , is profound in that it criticizes anti-poverty programs for their piecemeal approach, as John Schlosberg of the Center for a Stateless Society  [C4SS] observes: King noted that the antipoverty programs of the time “proceeded from a premise that poverty is a consequence of multiple evils,” with separate programs each dedicated to individual issues such as education and housing. Though in his view “none of these remedies in itself is unsound,” they “all have a fatal disadvantage” of being “piecemeal,” with their implementation having “fluctuated at the whims of legislative bodies” or been “entangled in bureaucratic stalling.”   The result is that “fragmentary and spasmodic reforms have failed to reach down to the profoundest needs of the poor.” Such single-issue approaches also have “another common failing — ...

More of This, Please

Or perhaps I should say, "Less of this one, please." Or how about just, "None of them. Ever again. Please....For the Love of God." Sunshine State Poll: Grayson In Trouble The latest Sunshine State/VSS poll shows controversial Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson trailing former state Senator Dan Webster by seven points, 43 percent to 36 percent. A majority of respondents -- 51 percent -- disapprove of the job that Grayson is doing. Independents have an unfavorable view of him as well, by a 36/47 margin. Grayson has ignored the conventional wisdom that a freshman should be a quiet member who carefully tends to the home fires. The latest controversy involves his " Taliban Dan " advertisement, where he explicitly compares his opponent to the Taliban, and shows a clip of Webster paraphrasing Ephesians 5:22 -- "wives, submit to your husbands." An unedited version of the clip shows that Webster was actually suggesting that husba...

A reply to Salon's R. J. Eskrow, and his 11 stupid questions about Libertarians

Posts here have been in short supply as I have been living life and trying to get a campaign off the ground. But "11 questions to see if Libertarians are hypocrites" by R. J. Eskrow, picked up at Salon , was just so freaking lame that I spent half an hour answering them. In the end (but I'll leave it to your judgment), it is not that Libertarians or Libertarian theory looks hypocritical, but that the best that can be said for Mr. Eskrow is that he doesn't have the faintest clue what he's talking about. That's ok, because even ill-informed attacks by people like this make an important point:  Libertarian ideas (as opposed to Conservative ideas, which are completely different) are making a comeback as the dynamic counterpoint to "politics as usual," and so every hack you can imagine must be dragged out to refute them. Ergo:  Mr. Eskrow's 11 questions, with answers: 1.       Are unions, political parties, elections, and ...