Skip to main content

The wrong statistics . . . and why the right ones matter in the Delaware education debate

Lots of sound and fury both from choice/charter supporters and detractors over the past few weeks in the Delaware blogosphere . . .

Lots of people raising interesting personal, ideologically based theories on both sides . . .

And an astounding absence of real data on important questions.

Here's one of the things we really need to know, in order to resolve the charter school/school choice controversy:

Has choice and charter created harm?

Harm would be hereby defined as a reduction in the educational outcomes of those students within the traditional public school system who have not had access to charter schools or have not been able to/chosen to utilize choice to find a more preferred school.

Harm would be determined by going back to the period, say 1985-1995, to determine how well the minority/low-income students were doing before choice/charter, and compare that to how well those students are doing now.

The problems?

1--DOE does not keep those stats currently (even if you look at NCLB cell stats if you could get them) in such fashion as to answer that question.

2--Since pre-1995 is also the pre-high-stakes assessment era, even if DOE kept those stats, you would be comparing apples to oranges, because there are not similar assessments.

The solution?

Somebody needs to design a research study that utilizes surrogates for testing (a combination of graduation rates, drop-out rates, SAT performance, and other items) in order to create a meaningful comparison of the outcomes for those students before/after choice/charter.

It could be done, and it would make a great dissertation.

I'm not certain it will ever get done (I damn sure don't have the time to do it), but what bothers me about the quality of the discussion is that nobody really seems to understand that this information is missing.

Everybody assumes that choice/charter has harmed these students because they are in increasingly concentrated low-income schools, and that may well be the case . . . .

But we don't actually know that.

And we need to find out--or at least acknowledge that information is missing from the conversation.

Comments

tom said…
It may be even worse than you think.

I doubt that it is even possible to design a useful study using surrogates. The SAT, for example, has been so watered down that test scores from the 80's are not even meaningfully convertible to scores from today's SAT. another problem is that many of the students you are trying to account for in the past had little hope of attending college, so they and/or their parents may have written off the SAT as a waste of time and money.

Likewise, changes in curriculum, demographics, regulatory and record keeping requirements have probably rendered comparisons of past & present grades, or graduation/drop-out rates pointless as well.

Popular posts from this blog

A Libertarian Martin Luther King Jr. Day post

In which we travel into interesting waters . . . (for a fairly long trip, so be prepared) Dr. King's 1968 book, Where do we go from here:  chaos or community? , is profound in that it criticizes anti-poverty programs for their piecemeal approach, as John Schlosberg of the Center for a Stateless Society  [C4SS] observes: King noted that the antipoverty programs of the time “proceeded from a premise that poverty is a consequence of multiple evils,” with separate programs each dedicated to individual issues such as education and housing. Though in his view “none of these remedies in itself is unsound,” they “all have a fatal disadvantage” of being “piecemeal,” with their implementation having “fluctuated at the whims of legislative bodies” or been “entangled in bureaucratic stalling.”   The result is that “fragmentary and spasmodic reforms have failed to reach down to the profoundest needs of the poor.” Such single-issue approaches also have “another common failing — ...

More of This, Please

Or perhaps I should say, "Less of this one, please." Or how about just, "None of them. Ever again. Please....For the Love of God." Sunshine State Poll: Grayson In Trouble The latest Sunshine State/VSS poll shows controversial Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson trailing former state Senator Dan Webster by seven points, 43 percent to 36 percent. A majority of respondents -- 51 percent -- disapprove of the job that Grayson is doing. Independents have an unfavorable view of him as well, by a 36/47 margin. Grayson has ignored the conventional wisdom that a freshman should be a quiet member who carefully tends to the home fires. The latest controversy involves his " Taliban Dan " advertisement, where he explicitly compares his opponent to the Taliban, and shows a clip of Webster paraphrasing Ephesians 5:22 -- "wives, submit to your husbands." An unedited version of the clip shows that Webster was actually suggesting that husba...

A reply to Salon's R. J. Eskrow, and his 11 stupid questions about Libertarians

Posts here have been in short supply as I have been living life and trying to get a campaign off the ground. But "11 questions to see if Libertarians are hypocrites" by R. J. Eskrow, picked up at Salon , was just so freaking lame that I spent half an hour answering them. In the end (but I'll leave it to your judgment), it is not that Libertarians or Libertarian theory looks hypocritical, but that the best that can be said for Mr. Eskrow is that he doesn't have the faintest clue what he's talking about. That's ok, because even ill-informed attacks by people like this make an important point:  Libertarian ideas (as opposed to Conservative ideas, which are completely different) are making a comeback as the dynamic counterpoint to "politics as usual," and so every hack you can imagine must be dragged out to refute them. Ergo:  Mr. Eskrow's 11 questions, with answers: 1.       Are unions, political parties, elections, and ...