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Showing posts with the label polling

The problem with the new math in today's political discourse

My friends at Delawareliberal went all out describing Americans who did not believe that President Barack Obama did not deserve the Nobel Peace prize as wingnuts with no fewer than nine major posts . The general theme was possibly best expressed by Delawaredem, who opined that when you have President Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize, you have the recipe for Peak Wingnut. The only problem, CNN now reports , is that a majority of Americans (which would require a lot of Democrats to make up that majority, one presumes) don't think President Obama deserved the Nobel Peace prize: About a third believe the president deserved the prize, according to this week's CNN/Opinion Research poll. Fifty-six percent say they disapprove of the Nobel Prize Committee's decision to honor him, the survey found. This would appear to mean one of three things: 1) Americans in general reality test much better than our local liberal/progressive bloggers, and realize that the primary reason Presid...

The danger of government-by-polling

Unstable Isotope had a good post up a few days back regarding the fact that most polls agree that 72% of the American people want a public option in healthcare. Aside from the fact that you can't get enough information into a single question to move beyond people's preferences for the concept of a public option (which they may or may not endorse when they see the details), I don't dispute the polling. What interests me is the conclusion drawn by UI at the end: This is a huge majority of people. I sure hope Democrats can find a spine to get real health care reform. I’m getting a bit tired of the Congress thwarting the will of the people. A public option for health care is not controversial! People are not buying the status quo defenders scare tactics about wait times and protecting the profits of those poor, put-upon health insurance executives. What I am left wondering is at what polling point the will of the people kicks in. According to the most recent ABC News/WaPo p...

Breaking Through: Allen Buckley finally included in Georgia polling and will appear on CNN

LCV Online reports the first polling in the Georgia Senatorial race I've seen that actually includes the name of Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley. The current results: Saxby Chambliss (R) 43%; Jim Martin (D) 36%; Allen Buckley (L) 3%; Undecided: 19% That 3% showing is a good place for Buckley to start building. He has the agreement of the Chambliss campaign that he should be included in the upcoming debates, and he's getting consistent, low-key media coverage. One of Buckley's strengths is fiscal policy (he's an accountant), and one of his most interesting stands is against the so-called Fair Tax advanced by Neal Boortz and others . That's apparently going to pay off with an appearance on CNN this weekend, according to Neal Boortz : A LITTLE FAIRTAX GET TOGETHER It happened yesterday at the Gallery Row Coffee Shop in Peachtree City, Georgia. Three FairTax opponents, including Georgia Libertarian Senate candidate Allen Buckley and Atlanta Journal-Constitution ...

Florida, gender gaps, Hillary, and all that

One of the reasons I like Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling is that he seems more genuinely interested in pursuing the implications of the numbers rather than trying to make ideological point. In the case of PPP's most recent Florida numbers (McCain up 47-44), here's Tom's take: John McCain has retaken the lead in Florida after trailing Barack Obama by a small margin last month. The candidates split the independent vote, while McCain receives 84% support from Republicans and Obama gets 76% support from Democrats. The Democrats crossing over to support McCain are disproportionately older white females, an indication that Hillary Clinton's base may not be completely behind Obama in the Sunshine State. Obama has slipped with Hispanic voters in the last month, leading among them just 48-45 after holding a 51-37 advantage in PPP's previous Florida poll. The numbers show an unusual gender gap, with McCain leading by 11 points among women while trailing by 5 points wit...

Wishful thinking knows no party: The Daily Kos fantasizes a non-existent African-American voter turnout in NC

From the kos : Research 2000 for Daily Kos. July 28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/28-30 results) Dole (R) 50 (48) Hagan (D) 42 (41) Not much change, with Dole right at that 50 percent mark considered "safe", though I doubt anyone really thinks Dole can just slack off. There are several races in which Obama's strength will have a say in the outcome of the Senate race, and this is certainly one of them, so let's see how he does: McCain (R) 47 (50) Obama (D) 43 (41) Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it's likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn't think so... So all things considered, these are pretty darn good numbers. You Tarheelers are going to be really busy this year. Never let a little stand in the way of creating gigantic White Houses in the air, as To...

Public Policy Polling to begin including more Libertarian candidates in North Carolina polls

From the Public Policy Polling blog : We'll include Libertarian Senate candidate Christopher Cole (as well as Lieutenant Governor candidate Phillip Rhodes) in our tracking poll for the first time next week. The last two polls on the race have shown pretty different levels of support for Cole. A recent internal poll for Elizabeth Dole that her campaign leaked showed Cole at 6%. But the most recent Civitas poll showed him at just 2%. We've consistently been showing more support for the Libertarian candidates than Civitas, so I thought that was perhaps somehow related to IVR. But the Dole poll doesn't support that theory. We'll see soon enough how Cole performs in our polling. A heartfelt thanks to Tom Jensen and all the other good folks at PPP; for legitimate third-party candidates to stand a chance, polling organizations have to treat them like they're real.

An Open Letter to Strategic Vision polling regarding the Georgia Senate race

After reading the press release from Strategic Vision regarding its most recent poll of the Georgia Senate race, a poll that did not include Allen Buckley , I sent the following email to Ms. Laura Ward, SV's listed press contact: Ms. Wood I just read you firm's release of its most recent polling regarding the Georgia Senate race. I cannot help but wonder why Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley has never been included in any of your questions. Mr. Buckley scored 3.6% in his last state-wide run for office, and with Georgia being Bob Barr's home state I would think he stands a good chance at significantly increasing that. Moreover, he has been receiving significant media attention from outlets like the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Macon Telegraph. Finally, I would note that given his positioning of himself as the "True conservative" in the race, it would be critical to Democratic chances for successfully challenging Senator Chambliss to know just how well B...