Coyote does the unthinkable ...

... which is deal with real economic data:

One problem with the stimulus bill is that it is so diffuse, so poorly understood, and so impossible to measure, that it will allow its supporters to claim anything about its effects. If no one knows what is in it, how do you measure effectiveness? Long recession? Those dang Republicans slowed the bill and kept the size too low. End of 2009 recovery? It’s because of the stimulus bill (never mind that the money will not have even really been spent). So, in the interests of setting a reasonable baseline, here is the pre-stimulus economic projections:

He then includes a comparison of ecnomic indicators now and in the early 1980s:

Back then, we responded with tax cuts and a focus by the President on reducing the size of government. Twenty-five years of prosperity followed. Today we are responding with a trillion dollars of money for government bureaucrats, increases in welfare, and pork for favored corporations. I am not hugely confident.

So the question, when evaluating the effectiveness of the stimulus package, is not whether the indicators go up, but whether the uptick exceeds that which the Philadelphia Federal Reserve predicted without any government action at all.

Once again, this disclaimer: I am not advocating a policy of complete government inaction (and if you want to know what I have advocated, go back and read it), but I am advocating for a bit more sophisticated dialogue over economics and modeling than we are currently being treated to by the likes of Paul Krugman and many of our liberal/progressive friends.

The Obligatory Libertarian Tax Day Post

The most disturbing factoid that I learned on Tax Day was that the average American must now spend a full twenty-four hours filling out tax forms. That's three work days. Or, think of it this way: if you had to put in two hours per night after dinner to finish your taxes, that's two weeks (with Sundays off). I saw a talking head economics professor on some Philly TV channel pontificating about how Americans procrastinate. He was laughing. The IRS guy they interviewed actually said, "Tick, tick, tick." You have to wonder if Governor Ruth Ann Minner and her cohorts put in twenty-four hours pondering whether or not to give Kraft Foods $708,000 of our State taxes while demanding that school districts return $8-10 million each?

New Warfare: I started my posts with a discussion.....

.....on Unrestricted warfare . The US Air force Institute for National Security Studies have developed a reasonable systems approach to deter non-state violent actors who they label as NSVA's. It is an exceptionally important report if we want to deter violent extremism and other potential violent actors that could threaten this nation and its security. It is THE report our political officials should be listening to to shape policy so that we do not become excessive in using force against those who do not agree with policy and dispute it with reason and normal non-violent civil disobedience. This report, should be carefully read by everyone really concerned with protecting civil liberties while deterring violent terrorism and I recommend if you are a professional you send your recommendations via e-mail at the link above so that either 1.) additional safeguards to civil liberties are included, or 2.) additional viable strategies can be used. Finally, one can only hope that politici...

More of This, Please

Or perhaps I should say, "Less of this one, please." Or how about just, "None of them. Ever again. Please....For the Love of God." Sunshine State Poll: Grayson In Trouble The latest Sunshine State/VSS poll shows controversial Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson trailing former state Senator Dan Webster by seven points, 43 percent to 36 percent. A majority of respondents -- 51 percent -- disapprove of the job that Grayson is doing. Independents have an unfavorable view of him as well, by a 36/47 margin. Grayson has ignored the conventional wisdom that a freshman should be a quiet member who carefully tends to the home fires. The latest controversy involves his " Taliban Dan " advertisement, where he explicitly compares his opponent to the Taliban, and shows a clip of Webster paraphrasing Ephesians 5:22 -- "wives, submit to your husbands." An unedited version of the clip shows that Webster was actually suggesting that husba...

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