Monday, November 5, 2012

And local predictions . . .

Just because Tom challenged me to do it (originally I didn't want to, because the actual data in Delaware is so much less dependable than nationally):

Here are my predictions for how well some of our Libertarian candidates will do tomorrow:

Gary Johnson will receive about 7,000 votes in Delaware, or roughly 1.7%, which is worse than he will do nationwide, but will blow the doors off the best prior Libertarian presidential showing of 2,052 votes.

Scott Gesty will receive around 6,000 votes, a few hundred more than Peggy Schmitt's 5,661 in 1992, and about 2% of the vote (US Rep vote is generally smaller than presidential vote).

In the US Senate race, Tom Carper will get 52% of the vote, Kevin Wade will take home 35%, Alex Pires will get 11%, and Green/Libertarian Andrew Groff will pick up a little less than 2%, or about 6,000 votes.

I will keep the crow in the freezer.

For other races:  Ben Mobley will lose to Karin Weldin Stewart by 53% to 47%, and he will be the stand-out for the GOP in statewide races.

I've already said Kevin Wade will only hit 35%, while Tom Kovach will peak at about 44%, Jeff Cragg will get 40% and Sher Valenzuela might hit 42%.

In other words, Republicans will continue to prove my point that they are no longer seriously competitive in this State.


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