Friday, November 2, 2012

Oh, look what CNN (the network that hates Gary Johnson) is saying about Ohio. . .

CNN poll showing--on the Friday before the election--that the difference between President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney in Ohio is 3%.

And Libertarian US Presidential candidate Gary Johnson is getting 5%.

Will he hold that into next Tuesday?  I have no idea.  But I do know that for such a late poll to be showing that 1 out of 20 voters in a swing state is still willing to cast a third-party vote means two things:

1.  The outcomes in several battleground states is going to be less predictable than the Demopublican pollsters, party hacks, and their journalist friends would like.  That's a good thing.

2.  If the Libertarian Party wants to make this a springboard into something real, rather than a blip like Ralph Nader or even Ross Perot, then the real work starts on November 7.


___j___ said...

Steve, the problem with the "leap" is not something that mere hard work can solve. The libertarian party has been around for decades. They work hard, they are smart, and so on. They will do better in 2012 popvotes than they have in a long while, and if my prediction holds will get at least 3m votes. But none of that matters -- paradoxically, the better the party does, the more likely they are to be destroyed.

The problem is that our voting system is mathematically driven to be two-party dominated. It has been since 1787, but in the past hundred years (since the infamous Bull Moose Party of 1912 under TR) the math has become evident to the average voter, at least fuzzily. Everyday repubs think that failing to follow the lesser-weevil rule is why Perot spoiled the election for Bush1st. Everyday dems think that failing to follow the lesser weevil rule is why Nader spoiled the 2000 election, giving us Bush2nd.

Point being, the better the libertarian party does in terms of popvote, the worse of a threat they will be perceived as. Long before they achieve enough of the popvote to win an election (let alone the multiple simultaneous wins that would be required to tip the balance and eliminate the repub party so the libertarian party could take their place in the new two-party-dominated world) the establishment forces from both sides of the aisle would join to crush the libertarian's chances.

The math is explained at wikipedia fairly well, but you can do it on paper yourself, just as easily. Look up independence of clones, favorite betrayal, disadvantages of plurality voting, tactical vote (and other things they lead to).

What is the alternative to trying to build up a third-party, which must QUICKLY become strong enough to overcome one of the dominant two, or be crushed when they gang up on it with the lesser-weevil mathematics firmly in mind? The alternative is Ron Paul's approach to libertarian-leaning politics, as implemented in 2008 and 2012: rather than try to *replace* the Republican Party by overpowering it from the outside, instead we must gradually *reform* the party of the republic, by outworking the existing precinct-chairs on the inside. Follow the rules, until we win. Get them on video when the establishment-folks violate the rules, to build support among grassroots everyday repubs, who want to believe their party is in favor of liberty... but will join us, if we prove it ain't so!

Now, I won't handwave pretty shiny rainbows of hope for you. Insider reformation is no picnic. When you are libertarian party member, you can pretty much assume that all people around you support the basics ideals of liberty. When you are a republican delegate, you can pretty much assume the exact opposite, and furthermore, that the pooh-bahs in charge of the key positions of power within the repub party hierarchy will cheat to win, if they have to. Just like the dems... sigh.

But just because it ain't easy, doesn't make it impossible. The younger folks are fans of Ron Paul, and Gary Johnson, not of Mitt Romney, let alone Dick Cheney. Liberty loving repubs will outwork and outlive the old guard, which means sooner or later, we'll win. Ron Paul has doubled his popvote from 1m to 2m (which is double the 500k popvote he got as a libertarian in 1988). Gary Johnson might get 4m votes in 2012 general election, and if he runs as a repub in 2016, I expect him to get 8m votes in the repub primaries. It only takes 10m of those to be the repub nominee....

tom said...

Thanks to the subtle election fraud committed by yet another Bipartisan Committee, we won't have any idea how many votes Gary Johnson and other 3rd party candidates actually got until Nov 7th, and we probably won't have an accurate count until sometime in December when all of the state's Dept's of Elections have released their certified election results reports.

about the same time they decided they needed a Bipartisan Committee To Exclude 3rd Parties From Debates, they realized that collecting up to the minute election night results and distributing them to the media was a huge and complex task that could only be accomplished by the Democratic & Republican Parties.

So they created a Bipartisan Committee to collect the results, drop 3rd Party & Independent numbers "because no one cares about them and they would just confuse people", adjust the D & R percentages so they add up to 100%, and distribute them to the media.