Tuesday, April 15, 2008

More portents of an interesting general election--Nader in Michigan

On April Fools Day I posted about the potential of minor Progressive, Libertarian, and/or Green presidential candidates to make the general election really interesting.

Now there's some confirmation in early Eric-MRA polling in Michigan (as reported in Third Party Watch), where Ralph Nader picks up 10% if the Democratic candidate is Hillary Clinton, 8% if it's Barack Obama.

What's even more interesting is that Nader appears to be a true spoiler, at least for Hillary:

McCain 46%
Clinton 37%
Nader 10%

OR

Obama 43%
McCain 41%
Nader 8%

One of the commenters provided more or less the conventional wisdom about this news:

Prediction #1: Nader will not get 10% of the vote in Michigan.

Prediction #2: The sun will come out tomorrow.


Of course, at this point (especially given the last four months) general election polls are worth precisely the paper they're no longer printed on.

But still. . . .

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