Skip to main content

Finally, some decent polling analysis of the NC Governor's race

CarolinaDem (from whom some other Dems who have attached state names to themselves could learn a bit about logical thinking) has posted one of the best analyses to date on the North Carolina governor's race that actually quantifies the impact that Libertarian Mike Munger is having on the contest:

In an election for North Carolina Governor today, 08/12/08, 12 weeks to the vote, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Republican Mayor of Charlotte Pat McCrory finish effectively even, neither gaining ground, with Libertarian Mike Munger siphoning votes from both, according to this latest SurveyUSA election tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV in Raleigh. Today, it's Perdue 47%, McCrory 44%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error. When Duke Professor Munger's 5% is added in, and combined with another 5% who are undecided, Perdue's slight advantage is not significant, at this hour. The contest is fluid. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, Perdue is flat, McCrory is down 2, Munger is up 2. Munger gets 7% of the male vote, taking votes from the Republican McCrory, and 7% of those 18 to 34, taking votes from the Democrat Perdue. McCrory leads by 18 points in Charlotte and the western portion of the state, where Munger gets 5% and Perdue is losing ground. Perdue leads by 18 points in the Raleigh and Greensboro areas, where Munger gets 5% and McCrory is losing ground. Perdue and McCrory are tied in southern and coastal North Carolina. Incumbent governor Mike Easley, first elected in 2000, is term limited. The seat is open. The current is swift.


Key points here:

1) Munger, like Libertarian Senate candidate Chris Cole, is not running as some sort of Nader-like barnacle fastened on the GOP hull. He's pulling in thoughtful, disenchanted voters from both parties. This is essential to the future of the Libertarian Party.

2) Now established at a firm 5%, Munger's numbers are large enough to allow firm regional and demographic analysis. He's scoring well among white males, among 17-34 year-olds, and is running equally well in the Charlotte/western NC and Raleigh/Greensboro regions. He's a legitimate state-wide candidate.

3) Munger's numbers will certainly go up after the October 15 debate, assuming that Bev Perdue has the guts to show up. I wouldn't. Dr Munger has a razor-sharp wit and no need to take prisoners (oops, sorry jason, I think I just veered off into hate speech there)....

North Carolina continues to be the Libertarian Party's most interesting and successful laboratory for experiments with electoral success.

Pity that neither Bob Barr nor national headquarters actually gives a shit.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Obligatory Libertarian Tax Day Post

The most disturbing factoid that I learned on Tax Day was that the average American must now spend a full twenty-four hours filling out tax forms. That's three work days. Or, think of it this way: if you had to put in two hours per night after dinner to finish your taxes, that's two weeks (with Sundays off). I saw a talking head economics professor on some Philly TV channel pontificating about how Americans procrastinate. He was laughing. The IRS guy they interviewed actually said, "Tick, tick, tick." You have to wonder if Governor Ruth Ann Minner and her cohorts put in twenty-four hours pondering whether or not to give Kraft Foods $708,000 of our State taxes while demanding that school districts return $8-10 million each?
1 comment
Read more

New Warfare: I started my posts with a discussion.....

.....on Unrestricted warfare . The US Air force Institute for National Security Studies have developed a reasonable systems approach to deter non-state violent actors who they label as NSVA's. It is an exceptionally important report if we want to deter violent extremism and other potential violent actors that could threaten this nation and its security. It is THE report our political officials should be listening to to shape policy so that we do not become excessive in using force against those who do not agree with policy and dispute it with reason and normal non-violent civil disobedience. This report, should be carefully read by everyone really concerned with protecting civil liberties while deterring violent terrorism and I recommend if you are a professional you send your recommendations via e-mail at the link above so that either 1.) additional safeguards to civil liberties are included, or 2.) additional viable strategies can be used. Finally, one can only hope that politici
Post a Comment
Read more

More of This, Please

Or perhaps I should say, "Less of this one, please." Or how about just, "None of them. Ever again. Please....For the Love of God." Sunshine State Poll: Grayson In Trouble The latest Sunshine State/VSS poll shows controversial Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson trailing former state Senator Dan Webster by seven points, 43 percent to 36 percent. A majority of respondents -- 51 percent -- disapprove of the job that Grayson is doing. Independents have an unfavorable view of him as well, by a 36/47 margin. Grayson has ignored the conventional wisdom that a freshman should be a quiet member who carefully tends to the home fires. The latest controversy involves his " Taliban Dan " advertisement, where he explicitly compares his opponent to the Taliban, and shows a clip of Webster paraphrasing Ephesians 5:22 -- "wives, submit to your husbands." An unedited version of the clip shows that Webster was actually suggesting that husba
70 comments
Read more