Thursday, June 7, 2012

The first substantive sign I have seen that Barack Obama may not be re-elected

I have said all along that I thought he would be re-elected, and that one should not allow one's preferences to get in the way of data analysis.

But today The New York Times/CBS poll reveals the following:

68% of the American people want the Supreme Court to overturn the individual mandate in healthcare.

41% of the American people want the Supreme Court to overturn the entire program.

Only 24% of the American people want the Supreme Court to sustain the whole thing.

If President Obama's signature accomplishment has begun to bleed Democrats, as this poll would suggest, one of the major "success" narratives of his presidency is gone.

That doesn't mean he can't win, but it does mean that "hope and change" has to go right out the window.


Dana Garrett said...

I'm convinced he won't win but not because of Obamacare. The economy is in the crapper and most of the most powerful interests in the USA are lined up against him, especially so now thanks to the Supreme Court.

Anonymous said...

I heard Dick Morris give his breakdown of the polling numbers and he predicted a Romney landslide.

I think Morris is a bit of a putz, but I respect his view on campaigns.

He said if you look at some of the States it may show 45% Obama 40% Romney, and it's reported as a 5% Obama lead. In reality it's a 10% Romney lead. The undecided's know they are not voting for Obama, it's either Romney or stay home.

Smerconish asked him when will know on election night and Morris said you can go to bed right after they announce Romney won Pennsylvania.


Eric Dondero said...

Libertarians need to revise strategy.

A Romney landslide is the absolute best thing for the Libertarian Party.

This has happened only one other time in LP history - 1984. Reagan beat Mondale with 49 states.

Why did the LP fail that year, miserably? Because we had the very worst candidate ever in Libertarian Party history - David Bergland.

Now, the Libertarian Party has the very best ticket in LP history Johnson/Gray.

With a Romney landslide, Republicans, particularly libertarian-leaning GOPers will feel safe voting for Johnson/Gray.

This is why I'm for Mitt Romney, AND for Gary Johnson. Why not the best of both worlds?

Eric Dondero said...

Breaking News...

Rand Paul endorses Mitt Romney for President.

Will McVay said...

4 more years of Obama or maybe 8 years of Romney? Give me Obama. If the GOP loses, they may nominate someone like Ron Paul or Rand Paul in '16. The Dems won't do that. Romney is NO libertarian.