Some analysts think so.
And, if he does, what does that mean for the Liberty movement?
Does it become subsumed into the structure of the Republican Party, where it can be domesticated and neutered?
Does it shatter in a million tiny pieces?
Or do Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party benefit by collecting a large segment of Ron Paul activists?
Dangerous to take a guess at this point, but here goes: between the three options mentioned above, I'd guess 30%-40%-30%.
If that happens, it's a major win for Johnson and the Libertarians, and here's why: most polls showed Ron Paul in a third-party candidacy collecting 13% of the vote. The breakdown posited above would give Gary Johnson about a 4% boost, and he's polling somewhere around 6% nationwide when he is covered.
So enough Ron Paul supporters get him close to double figures. If that happens in June or July, so much the better for Libertarians.