Have Ron Paul and Mitt Romney already made their "separate peace"?

This is the picture that Mitt Romney
positively has to have come out of
the Tampa GOP Convention.

The political world is abuzz right now with the question about what Congressman Ron Paul and his delegated (pledged and unpledged) are going to do at the Tampa GOP Convention this August.

NPR, for example, thinks it's all about handing the revolution over to Senator Rand Paul in 2016.

The Christian Science Monitor has a list of five things Ron Paul wants from the GOP Convention, including:

1. To change the soul of the GOP

2. An orderly show of force on the floor

3. To irritate Ben Bernanke

4. To prohibit indefinite detention

5. To keep the internet wild and free

Other sites have similar takes on the issue, and I'm sure that there is a good bit of truth in all of them.

I'm also fascinated by what's missing: any discussion of military interventions abroad.

It may just be that I am going to the wrong sites, but I sense a sudden toning down of the insistent rhetoric about military interventions abroad.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm sensing the outlines of a deal here.

Make no mistake about it, I don't think Dr. Paul would change his longheld views on foreign policy. But in working within the GOP he knows he will have to build coalitions and make deals, and he knows he will have to be realistic about what he can get from Governor Romney without "breaking the bank," so to speak.

Romney can give Paul "the soul of the GOP." If Romney gets elected, he is the leader of the party, and no matter what dreams the Campaign for Liberty might entertain, he's not going to worry about a primary challenge in four years.

Romney will give Paul his "show of force" on the convention floor. It is, after all, Romney's best chance to capture at least the tepid support of Dr Paul's followers.

Romney will give Paul his opportunity to discredit and prod Ben Bernanke. The Governor has already committed to letting Bernanke go if elected, and giving Paul room on economic issues (at least with lip service) is something he can afford.

Romney won't give Paul a prohibition on indefinite detention, but what he will promise is a full and thorough review of all terrorism and Patriot Act-related policies, and he will give the Paulites at least a strong minority voice in that review. If you thought W got blamed for a lot, wait til you see how the first year of a Romney presidency treats The Big O.

Romney will give in on the internet issues--at least on the surface, and for now. His corporate backers want concessions, but Romney will argue that they need to wait for a year or two until he is fully entrenched and not so dependent of the Paul movement to give it to them.

And at least one Paul supporter, I'd guess, will get into the cabinet, if not Dr. Paul himself. He won't give him Treasury, but he might give him Commerce.

What will Romney get in return? Paul will give Romney an indirect endorsement ("we support the party's nominee"), will not run as a third party candidate, and will not lift a finger for Libertarian Gary Johnson. Most especially that: Paul will keep his various Campaigns for Liberty at a distance from the Libertarians, because Johnson (with Paul support, even tacit support) would be able to fundraise and affect swing states--probably against Romney.

Romney will also get an armistice on foreign policy. In the General Election it is one thing for a Ron Paul or a Gary Johnson to run as "peace" candidates. Romney has to be able to make President Obama look soft on defense issues.

This is going to be tough against a President who has started four or five wars on his own, and raised the military budget to unprecedented heights, but Romney cannot win if he cannot make Obama look like he's bowing to Muslim potentates and secretly planning to hand over the keys to the Washington Cathedral (or the DC Mormon Temple) to mullahs from Iranistan.

So the deal will be that Romney gives Paul about as much as he could ask for on everything but defense and terrorism, and Paul agrees not to change his views but to shut up unless asked.

That's my prediction for the day. How well that would play with Paul's supporters, and how many would then defect to Gary Johnson--that's a question for another day.

The Obligatory Libertarian Tax Day Post

The most disturbing factoid that I learned on Tax Day was that the average American must now spend a full twenty-four hours filling out tax forms. That's three work days. Or, think of it this way: if you had to put in two hours per night after dinner to finish your taxes, that's two weeks (with Sundays off). I saw a talking head economics professor on some Philly TV channel pontificating about how Americans procrastinate. He was laughing. The IRS guy they interviewed actually said, "Tick, tick, tick." You have to wonder if Governor Ruth Ann Minner and her cohorts put in twenty-four hours pondering whether or not to give Kraft Foods $708,000 of our State taxes while demanding that school districts return $8-10 million each?

New Warfare: I started my posts with a discussion.....

.....on Unrestricted warfare . The US Air force Institute for National Security Studies have developed a reasonable systems approach to deter non-state violent actors who they label as NSVA's. It is an exceptionally important report if we want to deter violent extremism and other potential violent actors that could threaten this nation and its security. It is THE report our political officials should be listening to to shape policy so that we do not become excessive in using force against those who do not agree with policy and dispute it with reason and normal non-violent civil disobedience. This report, should be carefully read by everyone really concerned with protecting civil liberties while deterring violent terrorism and I recommend if you are a professional you send your recommendations via e-mail at the link above so that either 1.) additional safeguards to civil liberties are included, or 2.) additional viable strategies can be used. Finally, one can only hope that politici...

More of This, Please

Or perhaps I should say, "Less of this one, please." Or how about just, "None of them. Ever again. Please....For the Love of God." Sunshine State Poll: Grayson In Trouble The latest Sunshine State/VSS poll shows controversial Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson trailing former state Senator Dan Webster by seven points, 43 percent to 36 percent. A majority of respondents -- 51 percent -- disapprove of the job that Grayson is doing. Independents have an unfavorable view of him as well, by a 36/47 margin. Grayson has ignored the conventional wisdom that a freshman should be a quiet member who carefully tends to the home fires. The latest controversy involves his " Taliban Dan " advertisement, where he explicitly compares his opponent to the Taliban, and shows a clip of Webster paraphrasing Ephesians 5:22 -- "wives, submit to your husbands." An unedited version of the clip shows that Webster was actually suggesting that husba...

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