Thursday, May 24, 2012

Reason-Rupe Poll: In Wisconsin Gary Johnson at 5%; only 3% separates Obama and Romney

Spoiler situations are the first (and necessary) phase of getting Libertarian Gary Johnson to 15% in enough polls to be invited into the Presidential debates.

In Wisconsin, President Obama's lead over Governor Romney has shrunk to 44%-41% among likely voters.  Notably, the Obama lead is inside the +/- 3.7% margin of error, and Gary Johnson's 5% is outside of that same margin.

It is also difficult to characterize the "average" Johnson voter:
Gary Johnson voters in Wisconsin are difficult to categorize, as they agree with Mitt Romney supporters to end automatic union dues deductions, and think public employee unions have too much power and get better benefits than private sector workers. However, they are more like Obama supporters in that they are less comfortable limiting public unions’ collective bargaining, and are slightly more likely to vote for Tom Barrett (38 to 33 percent). They self-identify as Independent, but tend to lean Republican.
Look tomorrow for a round-up post on all the early Gary Johnson polling, and an unvarnished analysis of what it means at this point in the race.

No comments: