Thursday, May 17, 2012

Politico: The "Gary Effect" could be decisive in this year's election

Indeed:

While the Americans Elect effort has clearly failed to catch on, and Ron Paul-as-third-party-hopeful disappears as fantasy, it leaves Gary Johnson as the lone candidate taking votes away from either President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney.
The PPP poll in New Hampshire yesterday showed the Libertarian candidate getting 7 percent, in a matchup in the state where the president took 53 percent to Romney's 41 percent. Johnson "draws a little bit more from Romney than Obama, increasing the president's lead in the state to 13 points at 51-38," the pollsters at the Democratic firm wrote.
New Hampshire is a state where Romney, as a neighbor in Massachusetts, sees a chance to win. Johnson will ultimately end up drawing from the two candidates, but 7 points could be a major difference in close states.
I am minded, however, of what Matthew Reece says of the post:
"it leaves Gary Johnson as the lone candidate taking votes away from either President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney." This is a flawed way of thinking. The Democrats and Republicans do not own our votes, so neither Gary Johnson nor any other third-party candidate is "stealing" votes from anyone. 

No comments: